BJP Election Manifesto 2014 - A Quick Analysis

07 Apr 2014
The BJP has finally delivered its manifesto.

It is a 52-page document (also available on slideshare as a 20-slide presentation).

It is important to understand the composition of the manifesto drafting committee as the document will primarily reflect their ability to articulate one. The drafting committee was headed by Dr Murli Manohar Joshi and had the following people on it:

1. Dr Murli Manohar Joshi, 80y - CHAIRMAN
2. Jaswant Singh, 76y
3. Yashwant Sinha, 76y
4. Prem Kumar Dhumal, 69y
5. Sushil Kumar Modi, 62y
6. Jual Oram, 53y
7. Vijay Kumar Malhotra, 82y
8. Prof Lakshmikanta Chawla, 66y
9. Satpal Malik, ?y
10. Bandaru Dattatreya, 67y
11. Bijoya Chakravarty, 75y
12. Dr Satyanarayan Jatiya, 69y
13. Shawnawaz Hussain, 45y
14. Kanchan Gupta, 
15. Shanmukhanathan

The drafting committee is obviously not representative of the demographic (majority of the members are over 65 years of age) and may therefore tend to have ideas that are either not in tune with the times or rooted in a swadeshi socialist era. But lets analyze the manifesto with a more optimistic frame of mind.

First, a quick look through the presentation on slideshare.

The pledge appears to be a 16-point shopping list that would be appropriate for any national party, and is nothing more than a few homilies. It is surprising that it finds its way into the final version of the document in such a raw form:

1. Ek Bharat - Shrestha Bharat
2. Vibrant and participatory democracy
3. Empowered and inspired people
4. Inclusive and sustainable development
5. Quality of life in villages and cities
6. Basic amenities to all
7. Flourishing agriculture
8. Productive youth
9. Involved women
10. Robust physical and social infrastructure
11. Innovative and technologically driven society
12. Globally competitive economy
13. Brand India built on quality
14. Strong, effective and futuristic institutions
15. Open, transparent and systems-based government
16. Proactive pro-people good governance

The following graphic appears to be somebody's attempt to articulate how the party will build a modern India (if read bottom-up). Alternatively (if read top-down) it may just be a statement that a modern India would be build by us - our culture, our hands, our aspirations! A bit confusing, but that is the problem with any graphic not accompanied by a more detailed narrative. One is left to guess the intent of the author.

Note: The meaning is articulated in the full manifesto as: To build a Modern India: the best foundation is our own culture; the best tool our own hands; and the best material our own aspirations

The next graphic is a spotlight on the key failures of the UPA-2 government, and key actions needed to recover from these failures:

• Price rise - inflation, interest rates, hoarding, price stabilization, farmer empowerment, agricultural market development, crop variety and output management
• Employment and entrepreneurship - labour intensive sectors like agriculture, retail, infrastructure, real estate, skill development, entrepreneurship, career facilitation
• Decision and policy paralysis - improved governance, commitment, focus on public interest, bureaucracy reforms
• Poor delivery - emphasis on planning, execution, scale, speed, institutionalization
• Credibility crisis - restore trust and credibility in government, responsibility and accountability
• Corruption - governance, enabling technologies, simplification and rationalization of rules, review of laws  

The choice of graphic utilized (pie chart under a lens) was a bit misguided as it appeared to give equal emphasis to each aspect!

The guiding principles have been articulated by way of 5 slogans:

The full document articulates the BJP vision in five themes (as described earlier):

(click on photo to enlarge)

1. Attend the imminent - This theme addresses the six key issues that have been plaguing the people, the economy and India's credibility on the world stage right through the UPA-2 term.
2. Strengthen the framework - This theme addresses key issues in centre-state relations, national integration, governance and representation of people.
3. Reform the system - This theme address the key outstanding reforms that almost all previous governments have paid lip service to and failed to address. These include governance, service level guarantees and institutional reforms  - administrative, judicial, police and electoral.
4. Widen the platform - This theme addresses the issues facing economically and socially isolated sections of the population, minorities, emerging middle classes and the rural-urban divide.
5. Leap forward - This theme dwells on numerous aspects of the polity where the BJP intends to focus its attention and deliver its key development plank "Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas".

The Highlights

1. Rebalancing centre-state relations; increased state participation in programs/policy formulation
2. Movement from representative to participatory democracy
3. Decentralization and empowerment of Panchayati Raj institutions
4. Thrust on technology, e-governance
5. Institutional reform - administrative, judicial, police, electoral
6. Urban renewal
7. Women's safety, security and empowerment
8. Educational reform, skill development, online resources
9. Healthcare reforms, healthcare infrastructure, traditional medicine, hygiene and sanitation
10. Rationalization and simplification of tax regime
11. Agricultural reform and renewal
12. Industrial investment reform, regional hubs, focus on MSME
13. Invest in an incentivize manufacturing R&D
14. Theme based tourism circuits, capacity and skill development
15. Labour reform - organized and unorganized sectors
16. Freight and industrial corridors, world-class ports
17. Thrust on public infrastructure - gas grids, optic fibre network, public wi-fi, satellite
18. Interlinking river basins
19. Diversify energy sources, thrust on renewables
20. Thrust on science and technology for common benefit
21. Holistic development approach to ecological zones and other environmental issues
22. Renewed emphasis on national security
23. Private sector participation, FDI in defence industries sector
24. Increase in regional/global engagement, participation in international fora

The Touchy Issues

1. Review of Article 370
2. Madrassa modernization
3. Uniform Civil Code

Conclusion

While there is a pressing need for some rules regarding the structure and articulation of manifestos to enable them to evolve into long term strategy documents - not only to allow comparative assessments, but also to simply make them easier to read and digest - the BJP has managed to consolidate most of what its leaders have been promising on public platforms for the past several months. Its emphasis on development for all comes as a refreshing whiff of fresh air in an arena long poisoned by wasteful, competitive populism and the pseudo-secular politics of caste, creed and religion, all in the name of affirmative action, protection of minority rights and empowerment. The fact that the manifesto has the clear stamp of Narendra Modi all over it is a good sign. 

That said, the manifesto lacks the weight of a executable blueprint or roadmap. It is a compilation of statements of intent, a wish list at best and a perspective on what needs to be done, in no particular sequence and with absolute disregard to the realm of feasibility within a single term of government. It does not pick up and analyze cues from India's strategic environment from an objectives, options or risks perspective. It lack hard data and statistics to base critical intent, it does not specify priorities or weightages even at the level of broad themes, it does not discuss, develop or reject existing policy alternatives or articulate reasons for doing or not doing something. It does not dwell on the sources of funding needed to make the manifesto a reality in five years while keeping price indices, inflation and other parameters of economic health and well being in check.

Ask yourself the question, what is the manifesto worth in terms of funding requirements over the term?
10 lakh crores? 15 lakh crores? 100 lakh crores? Surely, with all the experience and data at hand, these can be estimated to a reasonable degree of accuracy. Or alternatively, one can project GDP and budget estimates for the last five years to give a reasonable estimate. If total receipts (revenue+capital) are Rs Two lakh crores a fiscal and you have a target for the deficit, you can surely derive a trajectory for the first year and project it outward for the next five. Should the national parties with access to all the information they need not do this fundamental exercise PRIOR to an election?

The BJP also has a number of all too visible and glaring rifts in its top leadership. Its been an ongoing concern, and but for the arrival of Narendra Modi on the national stage, would have made the BJP just another party in the fray, which in turn could well have generated the motivation required to propel the 3rd front into reality. However, coming back to point, these leadership issues in the BJP will be thrown into sharp relief on May 16, once the results of the poll are established. A public squabble at that point in time will dissipate the  euphoria, vitiate the atmospherics, send grand expectations including market sentiments plunging, and set the stage yet again, for their demise. The party will do well keep their squabbles internal and present a single face and a single consistent voice to the nation - that of Narendra Modi. That is, at least, for the time being.

BJP's performance as the primary opposition party in the NDA alliance over the past 10 years has been less than inspirational. Why? Well, for one, is the function of the opposition just to "oppose", no matter the cost of such opposition? Was there no opportunity for bipartisanship? Surely the period in opposition could have been used more constructively not only in advancing matters of strategic, national or public interest, but also to develop a solid manifesto, supported by hard facts and figures, a draft budget for the first year, a long term roadmap and a blueprint for action? Given the "deplorable  fecklessness and venality" [The Economist, Apr 05, 2014] of our politicians, is our experiments with democracy becoming too heavy a cost to bear for a developing nation?

And what about the age of our politicians? As seen, the manifesto drafting committee of the BJP itself has a majority of people over the age of 65 years. Experience counts, but surely, will not the parliament or public interest be better served if these elders retire from active politics while continuing to provide guidance and serve as a moral compass for future generations? For the manner in which all the seniors went about seeking "safe seats", one could easily forgive the child who asks, rather petulantly, "Daddy, is the parliament a retirement community?"

Bottomline, the manifesto is but just a document of intent. Implementation is and always will remain the weak link. Modi has the experience of leading a state for three terms. Some of that experience will most definitely provide pointers on how to navigate the treacherous waters of New Delhi politics. But the question of how Modi will navigate the shoals of continuing internal party pressures, pressure from future coalition partners and other multitudinous interests while being in the baleful spotlight of global scrutiny must surely weigh heavy in the minds of all his well wishers. And of course, we will still have to wait and watch how these manifesto declarations of intent translate into actions over the next five years. Nevertheless, a splendid attempt well begun, though not quite half done. We expect more, Mr Modi, much, much more!

Is India Having a Crisis of Soul?

This was the title of the centerpiece in the Times of India today, Apr 09, 2013. The piece is written by Deepak Chopra and Jim Clifton, senior scientist and CEO respectively of the Gallup Organization and presents a brilliant and unique perspective of the "sentiment" in the Indian economy today.

I had noticed that piece by CNNs Fareed Zakaria too, where he reviewed the performance of the developing economies in the BRICS grouping, stating that India had turned out to be the biggest disappointment in this group and that it was likely to be replaced by Indonesia.

Analyzing the problem, Chopra and Clifton arrive at the worst kept secret and root cause of India's poor performance - a staggering 33% of its employees were "actively disengaged", meaning not only are they miserable at work, but they walk the halls and petition their colleagues to be as miserable and discontented as they are. Only a miniscule 9% of employees are "actively engaged".

Chopra and Clifton go on to argue that the workplace tends to be symptomatic of society as a whole, and that the picture here was just as gloomy, that India's state of mind was severely troubled.

The outcome - when any society reaches a low point of well-being with a sizeable number of people suffering, it is in trouble and the social turmoil can boil over into the streets at the slightest of triggers as was witnessed in the aftermath of the infamous Delhi rape incident in December 2012.

This human side needs a deeper examination, the authors say, referring to it as a crisis of soul. A nation's soul is the sum total of all interactions between all people in that society. Every moment lasting a few seconds is positive, negative or neutral. In those moments, people may arrive at conclusions or take very tiny decisions that, as it accumulates, can profoundly change their day and even the rest of their life.

Boiling Frog Anecdote

It is said that if you put a frog into boiling water, it will immediately jump out of that vessel. But if you were to put the same frog in tap water and gradually bring it to boil, it will not perceive danger and will just sit there until it is cooked to death.

I believe this is what is happening to our people. There is systemic failure of government and governance. The political class has fallen into complete disrepute and the country is on the slow boil.

Are we reaching a point of inflexion, a tipping point for dramatic and transformative change?

Transformative change requires a different type of leadership. And community leadership is not the leadership of one individual. It needs to be driven by the community. The elected leadership element will only be the mechanism, a "lightening conductor", through which the will of the community is discharged.

Of course, this argument turns the whole of the present dispensation on its head!

 

Values and Motivation

We said we will talk about motivation here, but first let's take a look at values and how it has been framed into a group's statement of values.

So why are we talking about values? Is there anything left of values in political life?

Values

I was exploring the question of what drives people to take up public service? To be a politician? There has to be a driving force, a motivation to join politics. What is that?

In Tony Blair's book "A Journey", he describes a point in the beginning of his journey, in attempting to transform the Labour party in a revolutionary and undeniable way, sought a balance between traditional beliefs including their central foundation - the commitment to social justice - and the need to modernize its outlook in keeping with the needs of the 21st century. He finally came up with a statement of values that read as follows:

The Labour Party is a democratic socialist party. It believes that by the strength of our common endeavor, we achieve more than we achieve alone so as to create for each of us the means to realize our true potential and for all of us a community in which power, wealth and opportunity are in the hands of the many not the few, where the rights we enjoy reflect the duties we owe, and where we live together, freely, in a spirit of solidarity, tolerance and respect.

Motivation

Of course, most of us believe that the best way to motivate ourselves and others is with external rewards like money - the carrot-and-stick approach. That is a mistake, Daniel H Pink says in "Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us". The secret to high performance and satisfaction - at work, at school, at home - is the deep human need to direct our own lives, to learn and create new things, and to do better by ourselves and our world. In Drive, he examines the three elements of true motivation - autonomy, mastery and purpose - that is, autonomy in how we do our work, time and money to invest in the tools required for mastery of the skills required, and the freedom to work towards a purpose or greater good.

autonomy - the desire to be self directed
mastery - the urge to get better at stuff
purpose - making a contribution

If that is the new paradigm, for a political force to take root, we need to create the environment that will facilitate the enablers of motivation - autonomy, mastery and purpose - to grow and flourish.

How does a political force originate?

Does it start only in times of extreme duress or crisis?

What are the motivations that can cause large number of people to come together for common good?
Self interest is plausible, however it is self-serving. The contradictions will rip apart any endeavor based on self interest. Yet there cannot be motivation without self interest. It is a conundrum.

Can values be a driver?
Values do help you develop a clearer sense of what's most important to you in life. It can be a powerful motivator, and one does tend to relate better to others who hold the same values. And while it may be a good idea to have a group definition of important values, it can't by itself drive change.

Maybe the answer lies in a better understanding motivation itself as motivation is the prime psychological feature that arouses people to act towards a desired goal and elicits, controls, and sustains certain goal directed behaviours. Motivation is literally the desire to do things.

Lets explore this in the next blog.

The times we live in

"As the Age[1] turns to evil every virtue decays and vanishes : honesty, forbearance, kindness, memory and strength disappear.

Wealth replaces a noble birth, character and conduct. Might becomes right, for might alone determines dharma and justice.

Trade and fraudulent practice become synonymous.

The law will favour only the rich, and will have no regard for justice. He that can curse and swear best will be considered the finest scholar.

Poverty will be sufficient cause to establish guilt in the eyes of the law, while wealth and ostentation will be indices of character.

Rudeness and brashness of speech will be equal to dharma.

He that maintains his family by the foulest means will be considered respectable. Dharma will be observed only for exhibition.

Whoever is strong and daring will become the king, and will rule like greedy lustful bandits, with plunder and rapine of their own subjects, who will often flee such tyranny and seek refuge in forests and mountains.

Exhausted by cruel taxes, deprived of rains in lands from which true dharma has fled, the people will subsist on wild vegetation, roots, flesh, fruits, flowers, etc.

Kings will become mere robbers, and men, driven by despair and poverty, will become thieves, liars and murderers.

Men will become bestial and perverse-- miserly, ruthless, greedy and vindictive for the flimsiest reasons.

Arrogance, hypocrisy, deception, dishonesty, sloth, somnolence, cruelty of every kind, delusion, terror and wretchedness will rule.

Brigands and robbers will rule the land. Kings will all be tyrants.

People will espouse gluttony, lasciviousness and venality of every kind.

The vilest men will become the foremost traders, making cheating and thievery the common practice of the marketplace. Even when they are not threatened with any danger, men will take to forbidden means to earn their livelihood, and pride themselves on it.

Relationships between parents and children, brothers, friends and relations will not be valued.
Seated upon the sacred thrones of great and holy gurus of yore, men that are masters only of vice will expound dharma to the gullible populace.

Depleted by dreadful taxes, tormented by drought, starved, owning none of the bare necessities of life---homes, clothes, food and drink, a bed, a bath, etc. --men will seem more like bhutas (ghosts) and pisachas (demons).

Over small matters, members of the same family will fight their own blood relations, even unto death, forgetting all ties of affection.

No one will bother to look after their old parents any more, they will only live for themselves, and will neglect their own children. "

--Bhagavad Purana- 12th Chapter.

You might think this has to do with something that is happening right now. But it is written in the Bhagavad Purana, ancient scriptures collated and published around the 6th or 7th century CE. What caught my attention was the amazing resonance with our time.

Notes:

[1] Probably referring to Kaliyuga

Reinventing Government

I will divert briefly to Government as I am reading some excerpts from David Osborne and Ted Gaebler's book "Reinventing Government" [Osborne and Gaebler, 1992]. The book draws many of its ideas from the reforms in Britain in the 1980s and became an inspiration for the Clinton presidency. As the primary objective of political parties is to form government, we will keep these ideas in mind as we develop our own political concepts and ideology. The chief tenets are of the book are:

1. Government should concentrate on catalyzing various social and economic activities. It should steer, that is, give broad support and direction, rather than get involved in rowing, that is, in actual operations. It should steer rather than row.
2. The government should empower communities to serve themselves rather than the government itself getting involved in community service activities. The services in which community control can be especially beneficial could be health, schooling, and welfare related services.
3. The government should set out to create competition in public service delivery
   so that citizens, as customers, get the best value for money. For example, monolithic public sector organizations could be broken up into numerous units to foster competition; public services could be contracted out to the best bidder, and bidders could include public as well as private sector agencies; and an option could be given to government agencies to buy from inside the public sector or outside it. Privatization of a government activity or service could be done in such a way as to promote competition, for example, by handing it over to several parties rather than a single party.
4. The government should be transformed from being rules-driven to being mission-driven, that is, driven by a vision of excellence and a sense of mission.
5. The government should be results-oriented, and fund outcomes rather than inputs. The tendency in democratic governments is to worry about whether the budgeted expenditure is incurred or not, and whether government rules have been followed or not in incurring it. Instead, the stress should be on getting results even if it means liberalizing the budgeting rules and regulations, such as by permitting agencies to reallocate money from one head to another freely, or to carry forward the unspent balance next year without prior government approval.
6. The government should be customer-driven, meeting the needs of the citizen-customer rather than mainly the needs and requirements of the bureaucracy. This could be done through customer surveys and follow-up assessments of changes introduced as a result of such surveys, compulsory minimum contact of each staff member with the customers of the government agency or department, setting up of customer councils for feedback, of focus groups for dialog on a new service or service modification, creating electronic facilities for customers to communicate directly with an agency, customer service training for agency staff, test marketing of new services, giving of quality guarantees to customers, use of undercover inspectors to monitor public services, the setting up of efficient complaint registering and complaint tracking systems, etc.
7. The government should become more business-like, and try and earn what it spends on its various activities. Thus, its agencies should price their services rather than give them as gratis, and price them to generate a surplus. Having to support activities on their own would make these agencies value efficiency much more.
8. The government should concentrate on prevention rather than cure, and learn to anticipate problems. Governments generally tend to be reactive and that too slowly. Also, often governments undertake activities without thinking through their wider implications for pollution, environmental degradation and effects on disadvantaged groups. Anticipation of these consequences could lead to more effective plans.
9. The government should decentralize its operations and learn to get its work done through participative management and teamwork rather than hierarchically through the orders of bosses. For example, the bulk of authority over schools could be transferred from the local government to teams of principals, teachers and parents; a field laboratory to test creative ideas could be participatively setup; staff meetings could be held to brainstorm on how to rehabilitate a moribund sanitation department, etc.
10. The government should harness incentives and markets rather than controls and regulations to bring about desired changes, such as by offering guarantees for educational loans by banks to students rather than give loans itself, by creating a secondary market for housing loans, by taxing pollution at punitive rates rather than banning it, and by providing tax credits or vouchers to low income families to get [nutrition,] child care [or other benefits] from the market.

The central government's focus should be shifted from red tape to results by reinventing and redesigning government systems, agencies and programs to make them more responsive to their "customers", and to streamline the administration to make its operations cost-effective and its managers more accountable and empowered.

During the Clinton era, recommendations on the National Performance Review (NPR) task force (as the reinventing initiative was called) resulted in an estimated savings of nearly  $60 billion. Some 2000 field offices were closed and 160,000 positions were eliminated. Scores of agencies began to measure their performance, and over 200 developed and posted more than 3000 customer service standards. The federal government workforce was also cut by over 17%.

Some metrics on governance quality included among others:

• Government Effectiveness - the ability of government to pursue its priorities such as encouraging business, delivering quality public goods and services, and the control of waste in government.
• Political Stability - the absence of social unrest, radicalism and coercive governance
• Voice and Accountability - democratic functioning and the rule of law

In all, six perceived governance quality measures (affecting per capita GDP), each an aggregate of a number of sub-measures, are:

• Voice and accountability - orderly change of government, transparent and fair legal system, civil rights, political freedoms, press and media freedom, freedom from military influence, etc
• Absence of political instability and violence - absence of social unrest, coups, terrorism, civil war, armed conflict, ethnic or tribal tensions, coercive government, radicalism, etc
• Government effectiveness - pro-enterprise policies, degree of red tape and bureaucratic delays, quality and turnover of government personnel, ability to continue programs, political non-interference in public administration, quality of public goods and services, honouring of commitments by new governments, effective implementation, etc
• Reasonableness of regulatory burden - burden of regulation, degree of government intervention in the economy, wage/price controls, tariff barriers, regulations on capital flows, banking regulations, foreign trade regulations, restrictions on non-residents, barriers to entry in banking and other sectors, freedom to compete, effectiveness of anti monopoly legislation, dominance of state owned enterprises, state interference in private business, tax system, etc
• Rule of law - whether crime is properly punished, enforceability of contracts, extent of black market, enforceable rights to property, extent of tax evasion, prevalence of rule of law, police effectiveness, protection of intellectual property, independence of judiciary, ability to challenge government actions in courts, etc
• Absence of graft - absence of corruption among government political and bureaucratic officials, bribes related to securing of permits and licenses, corruption in the judiciary, corruption that scares off foreign investors, etc

Even a cursory glance indicates that we have a long way to go.
The first step in that journey is building inspirational political leadership.

REFERENCES
1. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) website.
2. Reinventing Government, Osborne and Gaebler, 1992

A model for analysing political ideologies

In his column Politics and Society, "Rethinking Political Ideologies", Salvatore Chiarelli asserts that since quantitative models are fundamentally flawed when used for qualitative measurements, the traditional representations of the political spectrum are inadequate for properly comparing and contrasting political ideologies, and hence the need for a qualitative model.

Chiarelli proposes that the new analytical model be based on the work of the jurist and legal philosopher Hans Kelsen, who created a concept known as the Grundnorm, or “grand norm.” Kelsen used this word to denote the basic norm, order, or rule that forms the underlying basis for a legal system. This is a theoretical concept based on a need to find a point of origin on which the system can be legitimized. Conceptually, it is a pyramid with the top-most part being the basic norm and all other norms derived from this in an ordered and logical structure going down to the base of the pyramid (see below). Any norm not within this structure is seen as an illegitimate norm to the structure.

This essentially implies exploring complex political ideologies, both individual and syncretic. Syncretic ideologies are hybrids of disparate political philosophies and has often been dismissed by political parties that are modeled either on the uni-axis left-right political spectrum or on the bi-axis social/economic model.

Kelson's pyramid, which has a basic norm and lesser norms branching outward, better serves the civil community and political discourse. Although Kelsen applied his theory to legal systems and the basic norm of such a system is hypothetical, one cannot only apply it to political ideologies, but can deductively determine the basic norm of each one. Unlike a legal system, a political ideology is much more ordered and intellectually consistent with itself.

Ultimately, politics should not be about left-wing vs right-wing; it should be about answering such questions as hat public policy best benefits the people, what the appropriate role of Government should be, and how to cope with the challenges humanity faces in the future.

I will use this model both to analyze existing ideologies and to determine a core principle (the basic norm) from which an ideology can be derived.




REFERENCES
1. Rethinking political ideologies, Chiarelli, Salvatore [2009]